Module 05 · Commercial
Financial Modelling
Three-statement modelling tuned for climate KPIs, plus an interactive unit-economics calculator for LTV, CAC, payback period and gross margin.
Unit economics calculator
Change the inputs to see LTV, payback period and gross margin update live. Use your real numbers, not your pitch numbers.
Verdict
Investable unit economics
Gross profit / month
$16
Gross margin
53%
Expected lifetime
24 months
Lifetime value (LTV)
$384
CAC payback
2.8 months
LTV : CAC
8.5x
Lifetime is capped by both churn (100 / monthly churn) and your contract horizon. For PAYG portfolios, add expected default losses to direct cost.
How to structure the model
One workbook, six blocks, in this order. Investors open the assumptions tab first.
01 · Assumptions tab
Every input in one place, colour-coded. No hard-coded numbers anywhere else in the model.
02 · Revenue build
Units × price, driven by a channel-level funnel. Split new vs recurring customers.
03 · Cost of sales
Bill of materials, logistics, installation, servicing and warranty provision per unit.
04 · Operating costs
Headcount plan by role and month, plus overheads. Payroll is usually 55–70% of opex.
05 · Working capital
Inventory days, receivable days, payable days. This is where African hardware ventures run out of cash.
06 · Three statements
P&L, balance sheet and cash flow that tie. If the balance sheet does not balance, the model is wrong.
KPIs to surface on the summary tab
Six modelling mistakes that lose rounds
- Top-down TAM percentages instead of a bottom-up channel build
- Hiring plan that ignores payroll taxes, benefits and recruitment cost
- No working-capital line for inventory or receivables
- Foreign-exchange assumption fixed for five years
- Grant revenue modelled as certain before award
- One scenario only — no downside case for the board